基于多重线性化理论的概率潮流计算

Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation Based on Multiple Linearization Method

基于蒙特卡罗随机概率潮流基础上,提出多重线性化与卷积理论,可以求得变量的概率密度曲线分布情况。在分析了牛顿-拉夫逊法的基础上,首先采用蒙特卡罗仿真进行随机潮流计算。接着采用了多重线性化模型,运用卷积理论简化运算,避免了蒙特卡罗的多次迭代。仿真结果显示,采用多重线性化卷积算法可以在保证计算精度的基础上,有效减少计算时间。

With the changing of operating environment of power grid,the system will receive more and more disturbances,and the system state will become more complicated. Probabilistic load flow calculation based on Monte Carlo can take random elements into account and fully reflect the operation characteristics of power system.However,much time will be wasted because of numerous simulation processes caused by Monte Carlo. This paper adopted multiple linearization method and convolution theory to compute variable's probability density curve based on probability load flow. The convolution theory can avoid numerous iterations thereby effectively reduce the calculation time according to the simulation results.