基于产业结构转型升级的高端装备制造业用电需求趋势预测分析应用研究

Practical Research about the Advanced Manufacturing Industry Power Consumption Forecasting based on the Industrial Structural Transformation

制造业目前是各地区战略性重点发展行业,其用电需求呈不断上升趋势,如何准确把握该行业的用电需求,以便对市场做出精准预判,是摆在各级电力公司面前的一个重要课题。针对当前某电力公司经营分析的需求,建立了一套分析制造行业用电趋势预测的方法体系。该体系从电力公司所辖某地区(以下简称"地区")的宏观-全社会和微观-装备制造行业两个层面入手研究,基于制造行业用电大数据分析,挖掘装备制造行业及其用电的发展变化特性,利用稀疏自回归时间序列法,通过建立用电趋势预测分析模型,对该地区制造行业未来的用电发展趋势进行了预测。

Manufacturing industry is a more important strategic industry in this region,and the power consumption has become a remarkable increase in recently years.So it is an important issue for this Electric Power company to make accurate prediction of power consumption.The article will build a method for analyzing and predicting the trend of the manufacturing industry power consumption,we start research from the macroscopic view（social industry）and microcosmic vies（manufacturing industry）.Based on the big data about power consumption,we study the development and change characteristics of manufacturing industry,and build the model about the trend of power consumption with sparse auto regressive time series analysis.Lastly,we forecast the trend of manufacturing industry power consumption in the next years using this model.