“一带一路”战略下中国经济增长与碳减排协同研究

A Study of Collaboration between Chinese Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions Reduction under the Belt and Road Initiative

"一带一路"战略的推进有助于促进经济增长,但也会增加二氧化碳排放。为了避免中国重蹈加入WTO以后碳排放量急剧增长的覆辙,防止西方发达国家通过打"低碳牌"来遏制"一带一路"战略的推进,中国必须平衡经济增长和碳减排的关系。从协同的视角对中国经济增长与碳减排之间的关系进行研究,构建了经济增长与碳减排复合系统协同度模型,计算了中国的协同度并探索了影响该复合系统协同度的关键因素。研究表明:2000—2013年,中国经济增长与碳减排的协同度先降后升,协同度较弱但整体趋势向好;能源强度以及非化石能源消费比重是影响中国经济增长与碳减排协同发展的最重要的两个因素。在此基础上,提出了打造低碳化的"一带一路"的建议与对策。

Promoting the Belt and Road Initiative may do good to regional economic growth,but it may also increase carbon dioxied emissions. In order to prevent the same situation of carbon emssion increase after China's entry of WTO and to prevent the developed countries' imposing'low carbon trap'on China,it is important to focus on both the economic growth and carbon reduction for the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the synergy theory,this paper builds a synergy-degree model of a complex system that centers on both economic growth and carbon emissions reduction and calculates the synergydegree of China. Furthermore,on the basis of the grey theory,the paper explores the key factors that have impact on the synergy-degree of China. The study shows that the synergy-degree of economic growth and carbon emissions reduction of China goes up after dropping from 2000 to2013. Although the Synergy-degree is very low,the overall trend becomes better. Energy intensity and non-fossil energy ratio are the top two factors that have effect on the collaborative development of economic growth and carbon emissions reduction in China. Based on this,the paper puts forward some suggestions to build a low carbon Belt and Road Initiative.