中国制造业产业生命周期研究——基于1993—2014年数据的分析

Research into Life Cycle of China's Manufacturing Industry: An Analysis Based on Data from 1993 to 2014

中国制造业面临着日益严峻的资源和环境约束,制造业产业如何在转型升级、创新驱动中合理定位和选择发展道路尤为重要。通过中国制造业产业生命周期分析,明确制造业产业发展阶段,可以有效制定相关政策予以促进或抑制。因此,运用产出增长率法、产业生长曲线法、综合指标分析法等方法,基于1993—2014年的制造业产业数据展开实证检验。结果发现,基于3种不同方法所得结论基本一致:1/3的制造业产业仍然处于快速成长阶段,但半数制造业产业已经处于成熟期,少数则处于衰退期。针对处于不同生命周期阶段的产业,可分别采取创新发展、转移产能等策略。

It is important for China's manufacturing industry to make good orientation in restructuring,upgrading and innovation for further development because of the increasingly severe resource and environment constraints.Based on the analysis of life cycle of China's manufacturing industry,the paper holds that full understanding of the development stages of the manufacturing industry may make relevant policies available so as to promote the development of the industry or be in the way of its development. Based on the methods of output growth,industry growth curve and composite indicator analysis,the paper empirically analyzes the data collected from 1993 to 2014. The results show that the conclusion is the same on the basis of the above methods: One third of the manufacturing industry is still at rapid growth stage,but half of the manufacturing industry is at mature stage and small number of the industry is in recession phase. Therefore,innovative development or the transfer of production capacity may be used for the industry at different life cycle stages.