资源型城市人口与经济系统的协调性分析——以鄂尔多斯市为例

Analysis of Coordination between Population and Economy of Resource-based Cities: A Case Study of Ordos City

为探究资源型城市人口与经济的协调发展关系,运用变异系数法、综合评价模型和耦合模型等,建立人口与经济系统评价指标体系,借助Arc GIS 9.3软件平台综合分析鄂尔多斯市人口与经济的协调度变化,并对未来做出预测。研究结果表明:2000—2014年,鄂尔多斯市人口和经济综合发展总体水平不高,且提速缓慢,各旗发展存在显著差异;协调度整体呈上升趋势,但波动较大;空间协调度大小有明显变化,协调等级呈现轻度失调、勉强协调、中等协调和良好协调,人口与经济基本保持原有协调关系;预测结果显示:到2025年地区协调度将达0.574,整体将发生初等协调向中等协调的转变,人口与经济实现同步发展。

In this paper, through establishing the index system of population and economic system, the coor-dination of population and economic system of Ordos City was studied and calculated by variation coefficient meth-od, model of comprehensive evaluation index and coupling model. Spatial distribution of coordination degree was studied and calculated by ArcGIS drawing software. On this basis, the coordination condition in the next several years was predicted by time series prediction method. The results showed that the comprehensive development level of population and economy in Ordos is low and hoisting speed is slow, and the difference of development level in different banner counties is huge from 2000 to 2014. The coordination degree level of population and economic sys-tem presented an elementary coordination level on the whole. In the eight banner counties, only Dongsheng District, Zhungeer and Dalate County achieved medium coordination level, and that of the rest districts need to be improved. The results of the prediction showed that by 2025 the coordinated development level in each district would be better markedly, which coordinated development level would change from elementary into medium.