“一带一路”战略下人民币跨境结算影响因素研究——基于VECM模型的实证分析

The Study on the Influencing Factors of RMB Cross-border Settlement under the Strategy of “One Belt One Road”——The Empirical Analysis Based on VECM Model

"一带一路"战略对于实现跨境贸易人民币结算具有重要的推动力,自2009年7月以来我国跨境贸易人民币业务迅速发展,但存在诸多制约因素。本文分析了"一带一路"战略下跨境贸易人民币结算现状,对跨境贸易人民币结算规模的影响因素进行实证研究,发现对外贸易水平、离岸人民币市场以及人民币汇率变动都会对跨境贸易人民币结算形成一定的影响,提出进一步推动跨境贸易人民币结算业务发展的对策建议。

The strategy of 'One Belt One Road' has an important driving force for the realization of RMB settlement of cross-border trade. Since July 2009, China's cross-border trade in RMB business has developed rapidly, but there are many constraint factors. The paper analyzes the status of RMB settlement of cross-border trade under the strategy of'One Belt One Road', makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of the scale of RMB settlement of cross-border trade, finding that the level of foreign trade,offshore RMB market and RMB foreign exchange rate fluctuation will form a certain impact on RMB settlement of cross-border trade.Finally, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on further promoting the development of RMB settlement business of cross-border trade.