基于未确知测度理论的陕南移民搬迁选址评价研究

Evaluation study on immigrant relocation in southern Shaanxi based on uncertainty measurement theory

基于未确知测度理论,建立了陕南移民搬迁安置点的适宜性等级评价和排序模型.针对陕南地区的居住环境,综合考虑地质灾害、交通运输条件、水资源和土地资源4个方面的因素,选取影响移民搬迁安置点适宜性的16个评价指标.根据实测数据建立各评价指标的未确知测度函数,并利用熵计算评价指标权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最终得出陕南移民搬迁场地适宜性评价结果.该方法不仅能解决评价指标的不确定性问题,还可以按适宜性重要度进行排序.根据汉中市宁强县5个已建移民安置小区现场调查所获得的数据,应用该模型对这5个安置小区的适宜性进行评价,研究结果表明,该方法科学合理、意义明确,可以在实际工程中推广应用.

Based on the uncertainty measurement theory,this paper built a suitability-evaluating and order-arranging model for im-migrant relocation in southern Shaanxi. In allusion to the local dwelling environment,synthetically considering four aspects including geological disaster,traffic transport,water resource and land resource,we adopt sixteen evaluation indexes for immigrant relocation site;Establishing uncertainty measurement function of each evaluation index based on the in-situ data,using entropy theory to calculate the weight of evaluation index;and judging grade according to credible degree recognition criteria,the evaluation consequence of suita-bility can be obtained in final. This method can not only solve the uncertainty problem of evaluation indexes,but can also arrange ac-cording to the importance. In line with the index data obtained from spot survey about five built immigrant resettlement communities in Ningqiang country,this model was used to evaluate the suitability of these five resettlement communities. The evaluated results showed that this method is scientific and reasonable,and can be widely applied to practical engineering.