珠三角区域空气质量预报方法及预报效果评估

Evaluation on the Method and Effect of Air Quality Forecast in the Pearl River Delta Region

介绍了珠三角区域空气质量预报的"六步法"流程,并对2015年空气质量等级和首要污染物预报准确率进行评估研究。结果表明,2015年珠三角区域空气质量以优良为主,24 h等级预报准确率1月最高2月最低,平均准确率为87.6%;出现的首要污染物种类包括PM2.5,PM10,O3-8 h和NO2,预报准确率9月最高3月最低,平均准确率为72.7%。

The'Six-step'method of air quality forecast in the Pearl River Delta( PRD) region was introduced and the accuracy of air quality grade and primary air pollutant forecast in 2015 were analyzed. The results showed that the air quality in the PRD region in 2015 was quite good. The accuracy rate of 24 hour air quality grade forecast was highest in January while lowest in February,with annual average of 87. 6%. Primary air pollutants included PM2. 5,PM10,O3- 8 h and NO2. The accuracy rate of primary air pollutant forecast was highest in September while lowest in March,with annual average of 72. 7%.