炼油产能过剩是否会“大水漫灌”?

Oil Refining Overcapacity Whether The “Flood Irrigation”

2015年炼油产能过剩已高达2亿吨,炼油装置平均开工率只有68.5%,比国际平均水平低14.8%。国内炼油能力67%利用率,且不说跟近邻韩国几大炼油企业90%以上的开工率比,距离85%这个较为理想的指标确实也有不小的差距。不过,产能过剩本身是个相对概念,一方面是产能,另一方面是需求。需求增长若无法期待,产能才成为问题。所以,要认识我国炼油能力这头"大象",仅看利用率平均水平是不够的。无论是炼油能力的潜在技术效率,还是装备利用率的分布情况,或是需求一侧的情况,都有必要了解。

Surplus refining capacity has reached 200 million tons in 2015, oil refining equipment, the average operating rate was only 68.5%, 14.8% lower than the international average. Domestic refining capacity utilization rate of 67%, not to mention with neighbors South Korea several major oil refining companies operating rate of 90% or more than 85% of the ideal distance indicators there is also not a small gap. However, overcapacity itself is a relative concept, on the one hand is the capacity, on the other hand is demand. If we can not expect demand growth, capacity to become a problem. Therefore, to recognize China's oil refining capacity in this head ation rate is not enough. Wh'elephantether refi', only to see the average utilizning capacity potential of technical efficiency, or distribution of equipment utilization, or the demand side of the case, there is the need to understand.