我国大陆地区电器电子产品报废量预测研究

Prediction of the quantities of waste electric and electronic products in China's Mainland

随着我国电器电子产品的报废量不断增长,准确预测报废量及其分布对回收网络体系规划研究十分关键.本文利用Gompertz模型及保有量系数法对我国电器电子产品报废量进行建模,在验证预测模型及结果准确性的前提下,对全国31个省2003—2020年电视机、电冰箱、洗衣机、空调及电脑的报废量进行预测,并对5种家用电器报废总量构成、时间序列及空间分布进行分析.结果表明,到2020年,我国5种家用电器报废量将达到20.3亿台,广东省以1794万台报废量列居全国首位,上海市以1083台·km^(-2)的报废密度列居首位;按现有回收处理规模,2014年全国仍存在103万t待处理缺口.最后对废旧电器电子产品拆解处理产能布局提出了合理化建议,为我国的家用电器回收网络规划提供参考.

With the increase of the quantities of the waste electric and electronic products, accurate prediction of the scrap quantity becomes a key precondition to constructing the recycling networks. Gompertz model and ownership coefficient method are applied to establish the prediction model in this paper. The obsolete volume of TV sets, refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and computers in 31 provinces from 2013 to 2020 were estimated based on the proposed model; and the composition, trends and spatial distributions of the e-waste in China are analyzed. The result shows that the total volume of mentioned household appliances will reach 2.03 hundred million units in the year of 2020; Guangdong is the top e-waste-generating province with ~he quantity of 17.94 million units, and Shanghai has the highest obsolete density of e-waste which is 1083 units per square kilometer in the year of 2020. There are about 1.03 million tons waste products in the year of 2014 which could not be recycled based on the current scale. Finally, suggestions on the distribution of recycling capability are provided which serves as a good reference for recycling network planning in China's Mainland.