长三角区域经济一体化和经济收敛:基于空间杜宾面板模型

Regional Economic Integration and Regional Convergence in Yangtze River Delta:Based on Spatial Durbin model

区域经济一体化是我国区域经济协调持续发展的长期趋势和重要手段.已有研究表明产业区域间推移有助于推进区域经济一体化,但没有考虑到邻近区域的空间相互作用及其影响.尝试将邻近空间溢出效应纳入到区域经济一体化及其区域经济增长差异收敛性.以泛长三角为典型区域进行了实证检验,空间杜宾模型的计量结果表明:未来2025年左右,长三角区域经济一体化融合程度达到一个新的发展阶段,区域内经济发展差异将缩小一半;长三角区域经济一体化存在显著的正向空间自相关性,区域内各个地区间的经济融合发展具有明显的空间集聚和邻近区域的空间溢出效应,且物质资本、城市化具有空间挤出效应;长三角区域经济增长差异存在条件收敛趋势,且具有正向空间自相关性,存在显著的经济一体化涓流效应.基于上述分析,提出长三角区域经济一体化的主要政策建议有:长三角区域内各级地方政府,建立以行政契约制度和磋商沟通机制为主要方式的地区性多元协调机制;充分发挥市场机制和企业主体作用,加快建设和培育现代服务业和先进制造业中心,推动产业城镇互动发展,形成区域融合重组的增长极轴.

Regional economic integration reflects the long-term trends and important means in the process of the sustainable development of regional economy in China.A large number of studies have shown that inter-regional industry helps to promote regional economic integration without taking into account the spatial interaction between neighboring regions and its impact.This paper attempts to mix in the spatial spillover effects into neighboring regional economic integration and convergence of regional differences in economic growth.Yangtze River Delta is characterized by typical regional empirical,spatial Durbin model results show that：The regional economic integration degree of Yangtze River Delta of will reach a new stage of development,and regional economic development will narrow differences half around2025 in the future;the regional economic integration of Yangtze River Delta has a significant positive spatial autocorrelation,regional economic integration between the various regions is a significant spatial concentration and spatial neighborhood spillover effects,and physical capital,urbanization have a space squeeze out effect;the regional differences in economic growth of Yangtze River Delta shows the presence of the convergence trend,has a positive spatial autocorrelation and a significant effect of economic integration trickle.Based on the above analysis,the main policy recommendations about the regional economic integration of the Yangtze River Delta are bring forward：local governments of the Yangtze River Delta region will establish a system of administrative contracts and consultation which as the main mode of communication mechanisms diverse regional coordination mechanisms;give full play to the market mechanism and enterprises,accelerate the construction and cultivation of modern service industry and advanced manufacturing center,and promote industrial-towns interactive development,foster the growth pole and growth axis of the regional integration and reorganization.