邯郸市水资源承载力评价与预测研究

Assessment and Evaluation on Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Handan City

选取水资源评价指标体系,运用复合模糊评价模型,对201.2年邯郸市水资源承载力(WRCC)进行了评价,得出WRCC为0.4145,表明邯郸市处于可承载的中游水平.接着通过灰色预测方法对邯郸市2020年的主要相关指标进行预测,再次利用复合模糊评价模型对水资源承载力进行综合评价,得出WRCC为0.5495,表明邯郸市的水资源还处于可承载的范畴,而且比2012年的水资源承载能力有所提高,分析结果为邯郸市水资源的合理利用及可持续发展提供一定理论依据.

Utilizing composite fuzzy evaluation model,selecting the characteristic evaluation index system of Handan City,this paper evaluated the water resource carrying capacity（WRCC） and obtained WRCC=0.4145,which indicating that the water resource carrying capacity was at a low level.Then the paper predicted the relevant indexes of Handan City in 2020 with the grey prediction method and comprehensively evaluated the water resource carrying capacity of Handan City in 2020 reusing the composite fuzzy evaluation model.The result was WRCC=0.5495,indicate that the water resource carrying capacity of Handan City will be still in the category of bearing and will be higher than that in 2012.It is useful for policy-makers,environment protection and sustainable utilization of water resources.