上海区域气象中心第3代海浪数值预报业务系统

An Operational Forecast System with the Third-generation Wave Model Used in the Shanghai Regional Meteorological Center

建立了以WavewatchⅢ第3代海浪模式为基础的海浪数值预报业务系统,通过对大气环流模式数值预报风场的误差订正和建立台风模型风场,有效地提高了对海面大风以及灾害性海浪的预报准确率。该业务系统实现从资料采集、资料预处理、资料加工和计算到预报结果输出的全自动化,它提供1天2次168h以内的海面风和浪高、浪向、涌浪波高、波周期的预报,预报员可以通过MICAPS平台和国际互联网调阅预报结果。经过一年半的业务运行,表明该系统运行稳定可靠,能基本满足预报员制作责任海区实时风浪预报的需要。在应用相同海面风场条件下,对有效波高的预报准确率比已有的第2代新型混合型海浪预报模式提高了5%。

An operational wave forecast system is established based on the third-generation wave model of WavewatchⅢ.Warp correcting for the wind from the general circulation model of atmosphere and setting up of typhoon model wind field can improve the precision of wind forecast,as well as the wave field.This system runs twice a day routinely and automatically from data input,model running to result output and their displaying.The products of forecast include sea surface wind,significant wave high, mean wave direction,mean wave period and swell high within 168 hours,which are shown on MICAPS platform and internet web site separately.Statistics shows that the precision of these products is high with about 5% rising comparing to that from the operational system of second-generation wave model running at present.