0813号超强台风打转路径和预报误差分析

Loop Track and Forecast Error Analysis of Super Typhoon 0813

利用常规天气图、卫星云图、NCEP再分析资料,对0813号超强台风"森拉克"(Sinlaku)进行了分析。结果表明:"森拉克"活动期间,副高正处于多中心弱势阶段,又受台湾地形影响,使"森拉克"慢速、蛇行、或打转及回旋移动。其密闭云区长时间滞留台湾,造成持续的狂风暴雨,并引发严重灾害。海温对"森拉克"的影响显著,当进入冷水区域时减弱,而进入暖水区域时发展。综合集成、日本主观、日本数值、北京主观等预报均有良好的预报能力,24h路径预报距离误差在100km以内,在"森拉克"路径平滑、移速缓慢时误差小,在转向、加速时误差大。

The Super Typhoon 'Sinlaku'(0813)was analyzed by using conventional observational data,satellite cloud images and NCEP reanalysis data.The analysis shows that the subtropical high was weak with several centers during the period of moving of 'Sinlaku'.Under the terrain effects of Taiwan island,'Sinlaku' moved slowly,snakelike or whirly.The typhoon cloud wall covered Taiwan for a long time,which caused wind gusts,heavy rainfall and other severe disasters in Taiwan.The sea surface temperature had obvious impact on 'Sinlaku'.It was strengthened in warm sea areas and weakened in cold sea areas.Either of the integration forecast method,subjective forecast of CMA,subjective and numerical forecast of JMA has high forecast skill.Every 24-hour typhoon track forecast error was less than 100 km.When 'Sinlaku' moved smoothly and slowly,the forecast error was less.And when it was accelerated or turned direction,the forecast errors were increased.