山东省城市化与区域经济格局关系的空间计量分析

Spatial Econometrics Analysis of the Relationship between Urbanization and Regional Economic Pattern In Shandong Province

以山东省17个地级市为研究对象,运用AHP法设计了地区间空间相关程度评价指标体系,并在ESDA分析基础上,构建了各城市化因素对区域经济格局影响的空间计量模型。实证结果表明:山东省区域经济表现为正的空间自相关,88.2353%的地市处于高-高、低-低聚集状态;整体上城镇人口规模对经济增长贡献显著,临沂、泰安出现规模不经济现象;公路交通运输、信息基础设施和信息产业建设对区域经济增长具有促进作用,而环境污染制约经济发展。今后要有序有步骤的分层实施农业人口转移,大力发展信息产业,统筹经济与环境、交通、信息产业的关系,稳步推进山东省城市化的有序发展。

Based on the spatial data of 17 cities in Shandong province,the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）is employed to design the evaluation index system of the spatial correlation,and the spatial econometric model is constructed to analyze the relationship among population urbanization,environment urbanization,social urbanization,way-of-life urbanization and regional economy pattern.The result shows that：Regional economy has shown positive spatial autocorrelation,and 88.2353% of the cities have shown the high-high and low-low state of aggregation.On the whole,the urban population scale for all regions except Linyi and Taian contribute significantly to economic growth.The factors of the construction of highway transportation and information infrastructure will promote regional economic growth,in contrast,environmental pollution will restrict the development of regional economy.