基于贝叶斯网络的HPPP基础设施项目特许期的分析方法研究

The Study of Analyzing Method on Concession Period of Hybird PPP Project Based on Bayesian Network

合理确定PPP项目的特许期一直是政府和社会投资者关注的核心问题,其中分析各种不确定因素如何对特许期产生影响又是解决这个问题的关键。为研究HPPP项目运营期中收支不确定因素及其关系对项目特许期时间跨度的影响,同时兼顾项目可行性评估标准的要求,将贝叶斯网络和净现值法相结合,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的HPPP项目特许期分析方法。在此基础上,对项目生命周期进行区间划分,并对最大概率组合进行折现分析,以确定HPPP项目特许期的可能区间范围。通过对实例验证了该方法的可行性,同时为指导实践工作提供了参考。

Reasonably determining the concession period of PPP projects has been the issue of government and society investors,the key to solve this problem is to analyze how various uncertain factors influence the concession period. In order to study the influences on the time span of project concession which uncertainties and their relationships that related to revenues and costs of HPPP projects during the operation stage exert,and taking into account the requirements of the project feasibility,it combines the Bayesian network and net present value and puts forward the analyzing method on concession period of HPPP project based on bayesian network. Besides,it divides the project life into several part and dicounts the group which have the maximum probality so that it can predict the possible interval range of the PPP project concession period. Through the analysis of actual cases,it prove that this method is feasible and provides a reference for the practical work.