基于物元可拓理论的高层建筑施工安全风险评估研究

Tall Buildings Construction Safety Risk Assessment Based on Matter-element Theory

在工程项目建设过程中,由于工程项目存在规模大、周期长、参与人员众多,导致工程建设存在诸多影响安全的不确定性因素,对于安全风险管理其核心就是对这些不确定性因素进行合理的预测和评估。结合高层建筑建设的特殊性及安全性的特点,构建高层建筑施工安全风险评价指标体系,将层次分析法和熵权法相结合,形成主观赋值权重与客观计算权重结合使用的评价指标组合权重。在此基础上建立模糊可拓评价模型,测算风险指标关联度,得到相应的风险综合评价等级。并结合江苏省某工程实例,对高层建筑安全风险进行综合评价,从而为多方案的比选提供科学依据。

For project construction,the factors of projects＇ large scale,long cycle,many participants,bring many safety uncertainties to construction process,and the core of safety risk management is to predict and assess these uncertainties. Based on the particularity of high-rise building construction and its safety features,this study establishes building safety risk assessment system, and combines the AHP and Entropy to form the combining weights index that uses subjective and objective weight calculation. Fuzzy extension evaluation model was built to measure the degree of risk associated with this index and to yield comprehensive evaluation of the corresponding risk rating. Finally,an engineering case in Jiangsu Province was used to evaluate the safety risks of high-rise building,so as to provide a scientific basis for decision making and plan selection.