欧元区国家向中国出口商品结算货币选择的影响因素

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Currency Invoicing of Euro Area's Exports to China

本文通过建立贸易大国之间结算货币选择的一般均衡模型,分析货币供给变动所引发的汇率波动对欧元区国家向中国出口商品结算货币选择的影响。研究发现,决定中欧贸易结算货币选择的主要因素为贸易品需求价格弹性与相对市场份额。对于需求价格弹性较小的商品,中国的相对市场份额优势越大越有利于欧洲出口商选择人民币结算;对于需求价格弹性较大的商品,中国对欧元区市场的依赖程度越低越有利于选择人民币结算。在此基础上,本文利用中国227个进口行业及其所属的16 779家企业的问卷调研数据对前述结论进行检验,并以结果为依据选定适于采用人民币结算的具体行业。

From the perspective of intra-industry trade, this paper adopts a general equilibrium model and analyzes the impact of exchange rate fluctuations caused by monetary supply shocks on the choice of currency invoicing of euro area＇s exports to China. The conclusion shows that both price elasticity of demand and relative market share are major factors determining the choice of currency invoicing in the trade between euro area and China. For goods with relatively inelastic demand, it is more advantageous to adopt Chinese yuan when China has higher relative market share. In contrast, for goods with relatively elastic demand, Chinese yuan is more favored when China becomes less dependent on the market in euro area. To verify the above results, this paper employs survey data consisting of China＇s 227 import sectors and 16,779 firms. Based on the empirical analysis, we identify specific industries in favor of Chinese yuan invoicing, pointing out the prospective areas for future policies.