基于运行可靠性模型的连锁故障模拟及薄弱环节分析

The Power System Cascading Outage Simulation and Vulnerability Analysis Based on Operational Reliability Model

提出一种基于运行可靠性模型的连锁故障模拟及系统薄弱环节分析方法。该方法结合影响连锁故障各个阶段的关键因素不同,将触发事件与后继发展事件独立,建立发现触发事件的初始故障概率模型,并重点分析后继发展事件的传播特性;其中,根据线路运行可靠性模型,考虑在连锁故障快速发展阶段系统潮流变化对线路停运的影响,从而发现后续发展事件以及连锁故障事件间的相关性;结合运行可靠性模型,搜索系统在不同初始故障下的连锁故障事件,并形成连锁故障事件集;基于连锁故障事件集分析系统薄弱环节及事件相关性,发现系统关键元件。结合算例,通过模拟系统在不同初始故障下的连锁故障事件并分析系统薄弱环节,可以提出相应的系统改造方案,预防连锁故障发生,并可以在事件发展过程中发现后继事件,以便阻止连锁事件进一步演化发展。

This paper proposed a power system cascading outage simulation and vulnerability analysis method based on an operational reliability model.This method firstly considered different factors in different cascading outage stages,and then classified outage events into initial outage and subsequent outage,an initial outage model was given and subsequent outage property was highlighted later.Based on the operational reliability model,impact of load level on transmission lines was taken into consideration in fast outage stage.This model could be used to analyze subsequent outages and interactions between outage events.Cascading outage events for different initial outages were simulated and vulnerability analysis was presented to locate critical component of power system.Case study results showed that this method could simulate cascading outages for different initial outages and find out vulnerable components of power system,some more system improvement measures could then be proposed to prevent cascading outages.This method could be used to search subsequent outages in order to stop cascading outage spreading.