个税递延型养老保险制度的政策变量测度与思考——基于上海市社会经济数据的实证测度

The Measure and Thinking of Policy Variablesin Personal Tax-deferred Pension System——Based on the Empirical Measure of Socioeconomic Data of Shanghai

保险精算模型及上海市社会经济数据的实证测算表明:免税缴费率、缴费积累时间、投资收益率是影响养老保险替代率的重要因素,三者均与养老保险替代率呈正相关关系。在投资收益率较低的条件下,需实施较高的税收优惠政策才能达到既定的养老保险目标替代率。不同年龄与不同性别之间的缴费积累时间差异导致了养老保险替代率结构呈显著的差异性,年龄越大及投保时间越晚,则投保者的实际替代率越低。为此,个税递延型养老保险的制度设计应该考虑这些重要的政策变量。

The established of actuarial model and socioeconomic data of shanghai shows that tax contribution rate,payment accumulation time,return on investment are important factors for pension replacement rate,and these in all affect pension replacement rate with positive correlation. Under low investment yields,higher preferential tax policies need to be implemented to achieve the target replacement rate of pension. The different payment accumulation time between different age and gender resulted in the structure of pension replacement rate has a significant difference,the older and the later they participated,the lower actual replacement rate that they will be obtained. Therefore,the design of personal tax-deferred system should consider these important policy variables.