顶层设计、中央统筹与户籍制度改革

The Reform of Household Registration System Needs Top-level Design and Transfer Payment of Central Government

户籍制度阻碍了经济与社会的发展。本文首先认为,现今与户籍相关的福利最主要的有保障性住房、最低生活保障和子女入学三项,而解决现有农民工的这三项福利是近期户籍制度改革的突破口;进而认为,户籍制度改革的实质就是中央转移支付的问题,地方政府在利益驱动和财政压力的前提下并无接纳外来劳动力的主动性和积极性。因此,户籍改革需要顶层设计,改革成本也需要中央统筹;同时,经过定量计算,在今后的20年的时间里,中央政府有能力逐渐将现有的农民工及其家属完全转移到城镇中来,从而在2035年左右使得我国的人口城镇化率达到60%。

The Household Registration System （HRS） has restricted the development of economy and society. Firstly, it is a breakthrough to reform HRS by providing the migrant workers with the city welfare, which concludes low-cost housing, compulsory education for their children and the indemnification of the basic living standard. Secondly, the essence of the reform of the HRS is a Central Government＇s transfer payment problem. Under the premise of the drive of interests and the fiscal pressure, local governments do not have initiative to accept the migrant workers. Therefore, the reform of the HRS needs top- level design, and its cost also needs the transfer payment of Central Government. Finally, after the quantitative calculation, we find that it is feasible for Central Government to transfer existing migrant workers and members of their families to city and town gradually in the next 20 years and improve the rate of population urbanization to 60% around the year of 2035.