城市空间失配与交通拥堵——对北京市“职住失衡”和公共服务过度集中的实证研究

Urban Spatial Mismatch and Traffic Congestion——Empirical Study on Jobs-housing Unbalance and Over-concentration of Public Service in Beijing

城市中各种要素在空间配置中如果出现"空间失配"问题,就会引发大量的交通需求,在交通供给不足的情况下必然形成交通拥堵。目前,在中国大城市中,居住与就业的空间失配(职住失衡),以及公共服务供给与需求的空间失配(公共服务过度集中)是导致交通拥堵的两大原因。以北京为案例城市,本文首先分析了这两种空间失配导致交通拥堵的关键机制;然后利用北京市人口和经济普查、空间地理信息、实时路况等数据,测度北京市各个街道交通拥堵、职住失衡和公共服务过度集中的情况,并采用计量模型定量测度职住失衡与公共服务过度集中对各个区位交通拥堵的影响程度;在此基础上,模拟测算对两种空间失配的优化会在多大程度上缓解交通拥堵并减少相应的社会成本。本文的分析方法及定量结果能够为缓解交通拥堵和环境污染等城市病的城市规划和管理政策提供决策支持。

The spatial mismatch in allocation of urban elements will bring about huge traffic demand and lead to traffic congestion in case of limited traffic supply. There are two main causes of the huge traffic demand in China＇s big cities ： The spatial segregation between residence and employment （jobs-housing unbalance）, and the spatial mismatch between demand and supply of public service （over-concentration of public service）. Taking Beijing as an example, this paper firstly gives a quick review on the economic mechanism through which the above two kinds of spatial mismatch result in traffic congestion. Then we quantitatively measures the traffic congestion, jobs-housing unbalance and over-concentration of Beijing＇s public service in the zone level （jiedao, there are 129 zones all together）. This paper estimates to what extent the two kinds of spatial mismatch lead to traffic congestion through an ordinary least square regression. Then we conduct a simulation to optimize the spatial mismatch, and estimate its effect on relieving traffic congestion and reducing social cost based on the above regression. The analysis method and the quantitative results can provide support for urban planning and management policies about urban diseases like traffic congestion and environment pollution.