如何走出全球危机——从供给和需求角度解构危机复苏力量

How to Walk out Global Grisis—— To Deconstruct Crisis Recovery Power from the Perspective of Supply and Demand

危机的本质是全球总供给和总需求失衡,现有收入分配下的总需求吸收不了总供给。危机复苏力量应从供给和需求两个角度来看。长期供给方面,革命性的技术进步推动的投资是根本力量,结构调整提高资源配置效率;短期需求调节方面,有财政政策和货币政策;国家之间以及国家内部的收入分配改善能从更深层刺激复苏。大萧条时期政策应对存在失误,但人口结构合理,收入分配呈均等化趋势,且有巨大的技术进步,加上战争带来的外部效应和城市化,第二次世界大战之后出现了黄金增长期。在本次危机中,各国政府应对及时有力,但人口老龄化严峻、技术进步停滞、商业动态下降、收入分配恶化、新兴经济体存在结构和制度问题,复苏前景不容乐观。中国已无法依赖外部需求推动经济扩张,应加快供给侧改革和结构调整。

The essence of economic crisis is imbalance between global aggregate supply and demand, aggregate demand under current income distribution is unable to absorb the total supply. Recovery power of the crisis shall be viewed from the two aspects of supply and demand. As for long-term supply, investment promoted by revolutionary technological progress is the fundamental force, while structure adjustment helps improve the efficiency of resource allocation. On the short-term demand side, there are fiscal policy and monetary policy. Income distribution improvement between countries and within country can stimulate the recovery in deeper level. Policy response to the Great Depression was far from perfect but the population structure was preferable, and there was huge technological progress together with the external effects of the war and urbanization. After World War 1I, there has been a golden period of economic growth. In the 2008 crisis, reaction of governments is timely and effective, but there is severe population aging and technological progress is stagnant, together with declining business dynamic and structural and institutional problems of emerging economies, the prospect of recovery is not optimistic. China is now unable to rely on external demand to promote economic expansion, it should accelerate the supply side reform and structural adjustment.