中国经济增长:测度、动力与趋势

Chinese Economocs Growth: Measure, Power and Trend

以不同标准衡量的增长率的经济学意义是不同的,其中的差异性质往往决定着一国经济运行的方向。调整缓慢使得CPI已不能很好地反映结构变迁中的经济发展状况,PPI更具有代表性。以PPI衡量的价格变化反映中国正处在成本推进与需求萎缩相互作用的新型通货紧缩中,这种性质的价格变化对企业利润的伤害是最大的,市场经济的动力机制是利润,由此反映推动中国经济增长的动力机制在快速衰弱,中国已进入"中等收入陷阱"边缘。从国内外形势看,中国企业整体将在一个较长时期都处于高成本与低收入状态,经济增长将十分乏力。

The economics meaning of the growth rate, given by different measure standard, is quite different, and the difference tend to determine the direction of nation＇s economic operation. The PPI seems to be more representative, while the CPI＇s lagging adjustment can＇t be able to reflect the economic development in the process of structure change well. The volatility of price, measured by PPI, shows that our country is suffering from the emerging inflation with the interaction of cost rising and demand shrinking. And this kind of volatility in price has terrible influence on corporate profits. The dynamic mechanism of market economy is the profit, and the volatility reveals that the power of Chinese economy improvement weaken rapidly and the economy has fallen into the ＂middle-income trap＂. According to the domestic and international situation, most Chinese enterprises will struggle between high-cost and low-income for a long time, and the power of economic growth at this stage will be quite weak.