中国代际收入传递的因果机制研究

A Reserch on the Causal Mechanisms in the Integenerational Transmission of Income in China

准确了解代际收入传递机制是理解机会公平与制定有效政策的必要条件。该文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年父子单年收入数据,运用工具变量法对父代收入及其人力资本在代际收入传递过程中的因果作用进行识别。实证结果表明,中国代际收入弹性主要是由父代收入本身所导致的,父代对子代的投资是代际收入传递主要的因果机制。此外,我们还估计出中国代际收入弹性大于0.339,而其真实值可能在0.6左右。父代收入在代际收入传递中的显著作用意味着均化父代投资将有利于提高中国代际收入流动性。

An accurate understanding of the intergenerational transmission of income is a requirement for comprehending equality of opportunity and making effective policies.In this paper,we identify the causal effect of father＇s income and human capital in the intergenerational transmission of income,using current income data from 2010 China Family Panel Studies（CFPS）.We find that the intergenerational income elasticity of China is mainly attributed to the causal effect of father＇s income,and the dominant causal mechanism is the financial investment in sons.Moreover,we obtain a lower bound of the intergenerational income elasticity,which is0.339,and the true value is probably around 0.6.The huge importance of father＇s income in the intergenerational transmission of income means that narrowing the income gap and equalizing father＇s investment can effectively increase intergenerational income mobility in China,which can provide useful guides for public policy-making.