P2P网贷行业利率定价模式研究

Research on Interest Rate Pricing Model of P2P Lending Industry

基于Galloway对P2P网贷平台运营模式的分类方法,运用不完全信息贝叶斯博弈理论分析不同运营模式下利率定价模式的差异及其对均衡成交利率的影响,然后采用面板数据和VAR模型实证检验成交利率和网贷成交量的主要影响因素。研究结果表明,P2P网贷平台在利率定价权分配方面主要表现为借贷双方博弈定价和平台自主定价两种模式;在其他条件一致的情况下,前者均衡成交利率一般大于后者。实证研究发现,平台成交利率与投资者人数和借款者人数比值之间存在一定的反向关系,比值越大,利率越低,这与理论模型结论相一致;平台或行业成交量与成交利率、国债收益率和同业拆借利率之间呈现出不同程度的反向响应机制,而对股市波动的响应不尽相同。

Based on the classificatio n method of P2P lending platform operation model by Galloway（2009）,this paper makes use of Bayesian game theory with incomplete information to analyze the differences of interest rate pricing model in different operation models and their impact on equilibrium interest rate,then it empirically tests the main factors influencing interest rates and the volume of P2P lending industry with panel data and VAR model.The results show that P2P lending platform mainly applies lending-borrowing game pricing model or platform-independent pricing model in terms of the distribution of interest rate pricing power;the equilibrium interest rate of the former is generally bigger than the latter when other conditions are consistent.The findings of the empirical research indicate that there is a certain negative relationship between interest rate and the ratio of investor number to borrower number,the greater the ratio,the lower the interest rate,which is consistent with the conclusions of the theoretical model.Besides,the volume of P2P lending industry or platforms responds inversely to P2P interest rate,treasury yield and interbank offered rate in varying degrees,while the responses to stock market volatility are different.