中国工业行业碳排放的脱钩效应分析

Research on Decoupling Effect of Carbon Emission in Chinese Industrial Sectors

文章基于1994-2013年中国工业分行业能源消耗及经济发展的相关数据,运用Tapio模型研究了工业经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系,对工业各行业驱动类型进行分类并构建碳排放脱钩驱动力模型。研究发现:近20年中国工业行业碳排放量大体呈增长态势,仅少数行业出现波动变化,且碳排放量向少数能源行业集中的趋势逐步明显,工业行业间碳排放差距在逐渐增大;除少数行业外,中国大部分工业行业碳排放脱钩指数呈现逐渐下降的趋势,说明中国工业行业碳排放呈现良性循环,四个时段碳排放脱钩类型主要经历了弱脱钩→强脱钩→弱脱钩→弱脱钩的变化趋势,工业减排潜力依然很大;研究期内中国工业碳排放脱钩变动主要依赖于能源利用效率的提高,能源结构调整对碳排放脱钩影响不大,因此,中国的减排战略除了进一步提高能源利用效率外,更需要提升减排技术及调整能源结构。

Based on industry＇s data of energy consumption and economic development from 1994 to 2013,Tapio decoupling model is employed to research the decoupling relations of economic growth and carbon dioxide,then industrial decoupling type is divided and driving model of decoupling is constructed. The results indicates that carbon emissions of most of industrial sectors shows a gradual increase,but carbon emissions of few sectors had a wave phenomena of rise and decline,and industrial carbon emission had certain trend with converging on few sectors; decoupling index of most of industrial sectors shows a gradual decrease and the decoupling types of carbon emission and economic development show changes of the weak decoupling→strong decoupling→the weak decoupling→the weak decoupling from 1994 to 2013,which illustrates China has much potential for cutting carbon emissions; the decoupling change of carbon dioxide emission and economic growth is highly dependent on improvements in energy used efficiency,however,the influence of energy structural adjustment on the decoupling change is not obvious. So government should improve energy- saving technologies,promote development of technologies and restructure energy structure.