理解《巴黎协议》——一个产业变迁与碳排放的双层分析框架

Understanding The Paris Agreement:A Double-layered Analysis Framework of Industry Transition and Carbon Emissions

新近达成的《巴黎协议》不仅明确了应对气候变化温度上升幅度的控制目标,而且标志着一个全球性碳减排体系的诞生。本文在对长达160年的碳排放演进历程分析的基础上,重点探讨了《巴黎协议》的本质及其对世界经济的影响。研究发现:碳排放既是一种引发温室效应、带来生态危机的污染行为,又是事关一国实现工业化与现代化的发展权利。在资本主义双重危机的背景下,基于贸易再平衡与转嫁碳减排成本的目的,《巴黎协议》登上世界舞台。其本质依旧是历史累计排放量的不平等,是利用发展中国家的依附地位与改善生态环境的迫切要求进行的第二重环境剥削。《巴黎协议》将基于碳减排约束,通过各国能源结构调整影响国际分工体系,进而影响世界经济体系。中国未来的发展必须坚持绿色理念,关键在于推动产业结构向具有更高技术水平的资本品工业化阶段跃升。只有依靠结构调整,突破中心外围结构,才能切实规避发达国家主导的环境剥削。

The new Paris Agreement not only has identified the control target for temperature rise from climate change,but also marks the birth of a system of global carbon reduction.Based on analysis of the evolution of carbon emissions during the last 160 years,this paper mainly discusses the essence of The Paris Agreement,and its impact on the world economy.Our study found that although carbon emissions cause the greenhouse effect and exacerbate the ecological crisis,they are a developmental right without which industrialization and modernization cannot be realized.Under the background ofthe dual crisis of capitalism,and based on the proposed trade rebalance and carbon reduction cost shifting,The Paris Agreement comes onto the world stage.Its main points are the inequality of historical cumulative emissions,as well as using the attached status of developing countries and their urgent request for improving the ecological environment to implement a second environmental exploitation.The Paris Agreement will,based on carbon emissions constraints,influence the international division of labor system by the adjustment of energy structures,and thereby influence the world economic system.The development of China in the future must keep the green idea,and the crucial point is upgrading the industrial structure to a capital goods industrialization stage with a higher technical level.Only by structural adjustment and the breakthrough of center periphery structures can we avoid environmental exploitation from developed countries.