山东省县域居民消费状况分析

Analysis to the consumption of Shandong Province'county-level residents

通过运用空间自相关分析、构建空间计量模型等方法,对山东省县域居民消费进行了分析。结果显示:山东省县域居民消费呈显著的空间自相关;随着空间自相关程度的提高,地区间的居民消费差距在下降;政府财政支出和固定资产投资均会对居民消费产生正向影响。空间计量模型结果比普通回归结果更加合理稳健,因此,在分析政府财政支出和固定资产投资对居民消费的影响时,不但要考虑本地区的影响因素,还应考虑到相邻地区居民消费的溢出效应。

This essay explores county consumption in Shandong Province by using the method of spatial autocorrelation analysis and constructing spatial econometric model. The main conclusions are as follows： there are significant spatial autocorrelation in the county resident＇ s consumption in Shandong Province; with the improvement of the degree of spatial autocorrelation, regional gap of resident＇ s consumption is decreasing. Government fiscal spending and fixed assets investment have positive influence on county resident＇ s consumption. The results of spatial econometric model arc more reasonable than ordinary regression. Therefore, when analyzing the government fiscal spending and fixed assets investment influence on the residents＇ consumption, it needs not only to consider the affecting factors in the region, but also to take into account the spillover effects of resident＇ s consumption in adjacent areas.