中国商品交易市场的综合实力及其时空分异——基于省域单元的实证分析

Comprehensive strength and temporal-spatial discrepancies of Chinese commodity exchange market based on the empirical analysis of the provinces

采用加权TOPSIS方法,选取由规模性、结构性和动态性3类指标构成的评价体系,对中国各省域的商品交易市场进行综合实力评判.发现综合实力存在明显的东中西差异,东部地区已形成以长三角为核心的"东部沿海连绵带".利用密度估计和ESDA对市场实力进行时空演化分析.结果表明:1)市场实力整体上升势头强劲,但上升速度趋缓,"两极化"分异特征明显;2)市场实力在西东方向上呈递增趋势,在南北方向上呈倒"U"字形格局,空间自相关现象明显,但部分省域单元表现出异质性;3)路径依赖、地理环境、技术冲击和开放历程是市场实力时空分异的主要机理.

By applying weighted TOPSIS method, we evaluate the comprehensive strength of Chinese commodity exchange markets from the scale, structure, and speed aspects. The results show that the comprehensive strength of market in eastern region is much stronger than in middle and western regions. Consequently, we study the time-spatial evolution analysis using kernel density estimation and ESDA. The results are given as follows. !） Though the growth momentum has been strong, some discrepancies occur at separate stages and present polarization phenomenon. 2） The strength of market tends to increase in west-east direction and presents an inverted U-shape, space autocorrelation is obvious with some heterogeneity in some provincial units. 3 dependence, geographical conditions, technological impact, and the process of opening-up dominant mechanisms of spatial-temporal segregation of market strength. and the ） Path are the