基于故障树方法的供电可靠性灰色关联分析

Power Supply Reliability Grey Correlation Analysis Based on Fault Tree Method

新电改方案中重点要求加强政府监管,提升电力安全高效运行和可靠性供应水平,为提升电网企业的供电可靠性,需要全面分析影响供电可靠性,主要是造成居民和工业等用户停电的原因。目前对配电网供电可靠性的研究,多侧重于配电网评估算法方面的研究,首先对电网企业供电可靠性及其影响因素进行分析,利用故障树分析建立停电原因故障树逻辑图,并根据集对分析法得出底事件的最大影响因素;然后,基于这些最大影响因素选取6个影响供电可靠性的评价指标,采用灰色关联度分析法,得到了评价指标与供电可靠性之间的灰色关联度。最后,以算例分析找出影响供电可靠性的因素排序,据此为电网企业提供改善供电质量、提升服务质量的技术支撑。

New electricity reform program focuses on strengthening government supervision, improving electric power operation safety, efficiency and reliability. In order to improve power supply reliability, reasons that cause residents and industrial user＇ s blackout need comprehensive analysis. Recent research on power supply reliability of distribution network emphasizes more on network evaluation algorithm. The paper analyzes power supply reliability and its influence factors firstly, builds blackout reasons fault tree logic diagram using fault tree analysis, and obtains maximum influence factor of the bottom event according to set pair analysis. Then, based on maximum influence factors, six evaluation indexes affecting power supply reliability are chosen. Grey correlation degrees among evaluation index and power supply reliability are obtained by grey incidence analysis method. Finally, power supply reliability influence factors ranking is obtained through case study. The results provide technical support to quality improvement of power supply and power grid enterprise service.