摘要
基于2002至2014年的季度数据,本文通过构建结构向量自回归模型实证考察了影子银行对房地产市场及货币政策实施效果的影响机制与作用效果。实证研究发现:影子银行规模的上升促进了房价的抬升及房地产投资额的扩大,扩大了社会信贷供给,降低了利率水平;进一步的反事实模拟分析还发现影子银行抑制了货币政策对房地产市场的调控效果,削弱了房价和房地产投资规模对紧缩型货币政策的响应程度。
Based on the quarterly data from 2002 to 2004,this paper empirically inspects the influence mechanism and role effect of shadow banking on real estate market and the implementation effect by building SVAR model. Empirical research finds that: the rise of shadow banking promotes the rise of house price and the expansion of real estate investment,enlarges social credit supply and reduces interest rate level. Further counterfactual simulation also finds shadow banking inhibits the control effect of monetary policy on real estate and weakens the response degree of house price and real estate investment scale to tight monetary policy.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第3期13-19,30,共8页
Modern Economic Science
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(13JZD009):我国城镇住房保障体系及运行机制研究
