房地产调控政策的实施和退出效果研究——基于VECM和DSGE模型相结合的分析

Research on the Implementation and Exit Effect of the Control Policies on Real Estate——Based on VECM and DSGE Model

房地产价格快速上涨以及从高位的快速回落凸显了探讨房地产调控政策实施与退出策略的重要性。为此,本文基于VECM和DSGE模型量化地探讨这一问题。研究发现:房屋限购政策主要针对投机性需求,适合对一线城市房价进行调控;住房贷款首付比例政策主要针对刚性需求,适合对非一线城市房价进行调控。本文还对住房贷款首付比例政策的退出速度进行分析,最终给出了最优的房地产调控政策的实施和退出方案。

The rapid rise and fall of real estate prices highlight the importance of probing into the implementation and exit strategies of control policies on real estate. Therefore,this paper quantitatively discusses this problem based on VECM and DSGE model. We find that the policies on restricting house purchase are mainly directed at speculative demands so that they are suitable for house price control of first-tier cities. The down payment ratio policy on mortgage is directed at rigid demands and they are fit for non-first-tier cities.This paper analyzes the down payment ratio policies on mortgage and exit speed and finally gives the optimal implementation and exit scheme of control policy on real estate.