原生资源与再生资源的耦合配置

Coupling Allocation of Primary and Secondary Resources

本文论证是否可通过原生与再生资源的耦合配置实现中国资源的可持续利用。本文挖掘了再生资源对于资源供给的乘数效应,构建了资源动态可持续利用模型,并选取铟和金两种战略资源做案例分析。结果表明:在再生资源驱动下,原生资源消费量与资源需求总量呈脱钩趋势,且再生资源的乘数效应呈近似指数型增长,这将大幅提升资源可持续利用能力,减少蓄积原生资源消费量。然而,在基准情景中,资源可持续利用的目标仍然无法实现。究其原因,在于再生资源回收利用具有强烈的资源环境正外部性,需要政府制度设计予以保障。本文进而构建多种政策情景分别测评政策方案对资源可持续利用的影响,集成了延长产品寿命、高回收率增幅及峰值、资源减量化等优势策略来构建政策组合情景,并模拟其运行效果。结果显示,这一组合情景可将铟和金资源供给量快速提升19倍,自2037年起两种资源均可达到强可持续利用的目标,且2015—2050年原生铟和金资源蓄积消费量较基准情景分别降低70.9%和72.1%,可实现资源弱可持续利用,有效破解中国资源约束新常态。随后,本文利用产品全生命周期管理的思路,分析了产品回收保证金制度、减量化设计与模块化生产对于实现政策组合情景的重要作用。

In this paper, we analyzed whether a sustainable resource supply could be realized in China through coupling allocation of primary and secondary resources. The multiplier effect of the secondary resource industry on resource supply was discovered. A dynamic sustainable supply model was used to measure the sustainability of resource supply. Two kinds of strategic resources, namely indium and gold, were employed as case studies. The results showed that primary resource consumption was decoupling with total resources demand, and the multiplier effect of secondary resource presented a trend close to exponential growth. The resource sustainability supply index will be significantly promoted and the primary resource accumulated consumption will be decreased. However, the goal of resource sustainability supply can still not be achieved in the baseline scenario. The reason is that strong positive externalities of environment and resource are shown during the secondary resource recycling. A reasonable policy is necessary to internalize the positive externality. A variety of policy scenarios were constructed to measure the impact on sustainability. Prolonging the service life of a product, improving recovery and recycling rate, raising formal recycling peak, and eco-design were proved to be the most effective ways to promote the resource sustainability supply. Subsequently, a combined policy scenario based on their advantages was built. In this scenario, the total quantity of indium and gold are rapidly raised 19 times, and the goal of strong resource sustainability supply can be achieved in 2037. Moreover, the primary resource demand of indium and gold will be reduced by 70.9% and 72.1% respectively during 2015--2050, and the goal of weak resource sustainability supply can also be achieved. This meant the combined policy scenario was demonstrated to be a feasible method to solve China＇s new normal of resource constraint. Subsequently, based on the product life cycle management method, the important roles of the product recovery margin system, the eco-design and the modular production were analyzed to realize the combined policy scenario.