黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季的干旱风险

Drought risk of summer maize in Huanghuaihai area,China

干旱是对农业影响最大的农业气象灾害,进行干旱风险评估对于提升区域灾害风险管理和决策水平、减轻农业损失具有重要的指导意义.本文基于自然灾害风险理论,利用黄淮海夏玉米主产区69个站点的气象、夏玉米播种面积和产量数据,以及当地有效灌溉面积等数据,从灾害风险的危险性、脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个方面构建风险评估指标和模型,对黄淮海夏玉米主产区干旱灾害的风险进行评估分析.结果表明:黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季(6—9月),干旱发生危险性最大的阶段主要是播种-出苗期和乳熟-成熟期,其中,河北中南部、河南西部和北部的危险性最大.经加权叠加脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力后,夏玉米干旱综合风险最大的地区主要分布在河南西部和西南部部分地区;其次是河南南部、河北沧州、邢台以及山东德州等地,属于次高风险区;风险低值区主要分布在山东南部、安徽北部和河南的信阳等地;其他地区属于中度风险区.

Drought is the greatest agro-meteorological disaster. Risk assessment of drought is of great guiding significance to improve the regional risk management and decision-making level, and to further reduce agricultural loss. In this paper, drought risk of summer maize was analyzed accor- ding to natural disaster risk theory, using the data of weather, planting area and yield of summer maize, and local effective irrigation area of 69 stations in Huanghuaihai area. The assessing indices and models of drought risk were established from the aspects of danger, vulnerability, exposure, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. The results showed that, in Huanghuaihai area, the most dangerous periods for drought during summer maize season （June-September） were the follo- wing two stages： sowing to emergence and milky to maturity. Spatially, the highest drought risk was mainly distributed in central and southern Hebei, western and northern Henan. After weighting the vulnerability, exposure, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, the integrated highest drought risk was mainly distributed in the west and southwest of Henan Province. The sub-high risk area was distributed in the south of Henan, Cangzhou and Xingtai of Hebei, and Dezhou of Shan- dong. The lowest risk area was located in south of Shandong, north of Anhui, and Xinyang of Henan. The other areas were at moderate risk.