我国贸易顺差对国内通货膨胀的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Trade Surplus on Domestic Inflation in China

在对我国贸易顺差和国内通货膨胀状况分析的基础上,从理论层面探究了我国贸易顺差对通货膨胀的传导机制,发现我国贸易顺差主要通过引致外汇储备增加,对以外汇占款形成的基础货币投放产生扩增影响,从而对通货膨胀产生影响。利用1994年~2014年的数据实证检验了我国贸易顺差对国内通货膨胀的影响程度,发现长期贸易顺差对物价水平的影响会表现得比较明显,我国贸易顺差在很大程度上促进了国内通货膨胀的形成。在未来,我国需要缩减贸易顺差的扩增,也需要合理控制和利用外汇储备。

Based on the analysis of situation on China＇s trade surplus and domestic inflation, this paper explores the trans- mission mecharfism between China＇s trade surplus and the inflation from the perspective of theory. It discovers that China＇s trade surplus has a great influence on inflation through increasing foreign exchange reserves, and then causes progressive ten- dency to monetary base resulted from foreign exchange. Using the related date from 1994 to 2014, this paper verifies the de- gree of trade surplus influence on inflation. In the long term, trade surplus has apparently result in the price level, and China＇s trade surplus has greatly contributed to the formation result of the domestic inflation. In the future, it is necessary to reduce the expansion of the trade surplus and properly take control of and make use of foreign exchange reserve.