长江口航道通过能力的评价与预测研究

Evaluation and Prediction on Trafficability of Navigation Channel at Estuary of Yangtze River

针对长江口现有航道条件建立了计算机仿真模型并结合2014年的统计数据以及规划预测的船舶条件进行了多方案的仿真模型试验。利用航道利用率及船舶平均等航道时间两项技术指标对多方案试验结果进行了比较分析,评价了长江口航道的运行现状并对现有航道的通过能力问题进行了预测研究。

A computer simulation model has been built for the existing navigation channel at the estuary of Yangtze River. Multi-option simulation tests have been made by using the above model on the basis of 2014 statistic data and the vessel conditions planned and predicted. The results of multi-option tests have been compared and analyzed by referring to two technical indices, i.e. the utilization rate of channel and the average waiting time of a ship before entering the channel. In addition, an evaluation has been given to the present state of the channel at the estuary of Yangtze River, and the prediction has been made for the trafficability of the existing channel in the future.