基于增加值贸易视角的中国对外贸易统计研究——兼与海关统计方式比较分析

Chinese Foreign Trade Statistics in Value-Added: Comparison with Customs Statistics

生产网络全球化背景下，贸易转移和折返问题日益突出，海关统计能否真实反映一国在进、出口中创造的价值，受到广泛质疑。在理论模型逻辑演绎的基础上，文章基于世界投入产出框架，构建了两国间增加值贸易模型和海关统计模型，两相比较发现：由于出口国外增加值和进口国内增加值的存在，海关统计会以相同的绝对额高估一国的进、出口价值，进而双倍虚大贸易总额，但并未改变一国真实的对外贸易失衡状况。在此基础上，依据1995～2011年世界投入产出表，文章测度并比较分析了两种统计方式下中国的对外贸易状况，结果验证了上述结论：在17年间，相对于海关统计额，增加值进口、出口、总额的均值分别下降了29．8％、23．8％和26．5％，但贸易差额和贸易地位并未改变。

In the context of global production network,with increasingly prominent trade diversion and trade reentry issues,it is increasingly difficult for traditional customs statistics to reflect the true value creation of a country's import and export. Based on the theoretical model of logical deduction,this paper constructs two-country value-added model and customs statistics model,using the world input-output table. By comparative analysis,we find that customs statistics overvalued import and export in equal measure,as a result of double exaggeration in total trade,but not overstating the true trade imbalance. Using 1995 ~ 2011 data from world input-output tables,this paper measures China' s trade interest. Compared with customs statistics,China' s average value added in trade in the 17 years changed as follows: imports fell by 29. 8%,exports declined by 23. 8%,total trade declined by26. 5%,but trade balance unchanged.