增加值贸易视角下双边贸易利益再分解——以中美贸易为例

Re-decomposition of Bilateral Trade Gains Based on Trade in Value-added: A Case of China-US Trade

文章通过构建以出口产品最终吸收为标准的双边国家、部门及一国对外总出口的增加值分解框架，弥补了现有研究依赖产出或出口内生变量核算增加值的不足。在利用1995～2011年世界投入产出表对中美双边贸易增加值构成及利益分配进行重新测度后发现：中国对美出口创造了全球生产模式下的“多赢”格局，但贸易利益分配越发不利于中国；劳动密集型和资本密集型制造业出口国内增加值的不断下降揭示出中国以传统优势参与国际分_T-的获利能力正逐渐减弱；知识密集型制造业已成为中美双方贸易利益分配的主要领域；培育和提升服务业价值增值能力是未来中国获得更大贸易利益的关键。

This paper constructs the gross export accounting framework at bilateral countries,sectors and gross exports by the final destination absorption of exports and overcomes the shortages of relative researches caused by the usage of endogenous variables,such as output and export. After analyzing the value-added components and distribution pattern of gains from China-US Trade,we find that traditional trade statistics has about 25% overestimation of China-US trade imbalance. China's export to America brings about win-win situation in the context of global production mode. The China-US distribution pattern of gains from bilateral trade increasingly goes against China. The steady decline of profitability from Labor intensive and capital intensive manufacturing exports indicates that the advantage of traditional industries has gradually weakened. Knowledge intensive manufacturing already becomes the main profitability source of China's export to US. To cultivate and enhance the profitability of service industry in china is the key to get more and more trade gains.