农户信贷配给程度及其对家庭金融资产的影响

The Extent of Credit Rationing and its Influence on Rural Households Financial Assets in China

笔者根据2005年-2013年全国15个省区1500个样本农户的跟踪调研数据，基于面板部分可观测Biprobit模型和引入哑变量的线性回归模型，估计出农户的信贷配给程度及其对家庭金融资产的影响。研究结果表明，受到信贷配给的农户占53．1％，其中受到完全配给的农户占41．3％，受到部分配给的农户占11．8％；完全信贷配给对家庭金融资产具有显著影响，它使农户家庭手持现金增加1521元，使农户家庭手持现金与储蓄的比值上升了5．61％。基于以上实证结论，笔者提出如下政策建议：进一步完善农村社会保障体系；构建正规金融组织、非正规金融组织及新型农村金融组织机构有机协同的多元化农村金融生态系统；建立产权担保机制，创新农村金融衍生品。

Based on the datas that include 1500 sample rural households surveyed and tracked from 15 provinces, and by using the pan-el partially observable Biprobit model and linear regression model with dummy variable , this paper estimates the extent of credit ration-ing of rural households and its impact on rural households financial assets. The results show： 53.1% of rural households have credit ra-tioning, 42.3% of which receive full credit rationing, 11.8% of which receive some of credit rationing; The full credit rationing havea significant impact on household financial assets, which suggests that the full credit rationing make rural households cash increase1521 yuan, make the ratio of rural households cash and savings rise 5.61%. Therefore, the paper proposes suggestions that includeperfecting rural social security system, constructing diversified rural financial ecosystem that can make the formal financial organiza-tions, informal financial organization and new types of rural financial organizations maintain organic coordination, establishing propertyrights guarantee mechanism, innovating rural financial derivatives.