乡镇精细化最高最低气温预报方法初探

Preliminary Study on Forecast Method of Maximum and Minimum Temperature Refinement in Township

[目的]探讨精细化最高、最低气温预报方法。[方法]通过对2013年7月至2014年6月葫芦岛市乡镇观测点与县观测站最低、最高气温的差异进行统计分析,利用修正Barnes插值和一阶卡尔曼滤波订正方法制作乡镇观测点的最低、最高气温预报,并进行精细化订正。[结果]随季节变化乡镇观测点与县观测站之间的最低、最高气温具有明显差异。[结论]为开展精细化到乡镇的温度预报奠定了基础。

[Objective] Discussion on the forecast method of maximum and minimum temperature refinemenh [Method] From the analysis on the difference between the lowest and the highest temperature through the observation of the township in July 2013 to June 2014 in Huludao, eounly station observation with Barnes and first-order Kahnan filter statistical analysis results were obtained. [Result] The township and county observation station temperature between the lowest and the highest temperature had obvious differences with the seasons. [Conclusion] The results would provide basement for the temperature refinement forec：ast in township.