中国土地利用碳排放演变与影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Evolution of Land Use Carbon Emission in China

以1989~2013年中国统计数据为基础,借助土地利用碳排放计算方法和STIRPAT模型,分析土地利用碳排放演变与影响因素,结果表明：1土地利用碳排放量呈增加趋势,其中建设用地碳排放量起主导作用。研究时段土地利用碳汇略有增加,但远不能抵消建设用地碳源作用。2土地利用碳排放过程划分为四个阶段,即1989~1996年碳排放量稳定增加、1997~2001年碳排放量缓慢增加、2002~2007年碳排放量急剧增加、2008~2013年碳排放量快速增加阶段。3研究时段内单位GDP碳排放强度减小,人均碳排放强度增加。4土地利用碳排放与人口数量呈负相关关系,与GDP呈正相关关系。

This paper analyzed the evolution and influencing factors of land use carbon emission based on Chinese statistics data from 1989 to 2013 by land use carbon emission calculated method, based on the STIRPAT model. Result showed that land use carbon emission was increase, in which built-up land played a leading role. Land use carbon sinks slightly in- creased but it could not offset the carbon emission by built-up land. The process of land use carbon emission was divided in- to 4 stages, which were a steady increasing stage from 1989 to 1996, a slowly increasing stage from 1997 to 2001, a sharp increasing stage from 2002 to 2007 and a rapid increasing stage from 2008 to 2013. Carbon emission intensity of per unit of GDP was decrease while carbon emission intensity of per person increase, which all reflect that the consumption style of fos- sil energy was change from extensive to intensive gradually, and carbon emission intensity was increase gradually induced by the increasing of personal consumption capacity. Land use carbon emission had negative correlation with population while had positive correlation with GDP.