碳捕捉和储存技术的选择与政策激励分析

Analysis of Selecting and Policy Incentives of Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies

利用实物期权方法,分析了不同激励政策对两种碳捕捉和储存(CCS)技术选择策略的影响。研究结果表明:投资成本补贴优于运营成本补贴,且如果补贴较多,投资者会选择新一代CCS技术,否则,投资者选择现有CCS技术,并再伺机升级到新技术;市场不确定性的增加虽然能导致CCS投资延迟,但当其增大到一定程度,反而会促使CCS投资提前发生。

This paper analyzes the effect of different incentive policies on selecting strategy of two kinds of carbon capture and storage （CCS） technologies by the real option method. Results show that, the influence of the investment cost subsidy on CCS selection is better than one of the operation cost subsidy, and with the increasing of subsidy degree, investors will first select the new CCS technology, otherwise, they can select the old CCS technology, and then upgrade to the new one. Result also shows that, although increasing of market uncertainty can cause CCS investment delay, it also make it occur a- head of time when the uncertainty increases to a certain extent.