煤炭资源税改革的市场效应分析

Market Effect Evaluation and Trend Prediction of Coal Resource Tax Reform:Based on the Reform of Supply Side

在供给侧改革的背景下,传统的煤炭企业面临"去产能"的严峻考验,同时也存在以"降成本"为导向的财税改革提供的发展契机。本文以2011年和2014年资源税改革文件的发布和实施为研究对象,运用事件研究法分析了煤炭资源税改革的市场效应。结果显示,在煤价快速下行阶段,市场对焦煤资源税税额增加作出消极反应,煤炭开采类上市公司市值下降。而煤炭资源税计征方式的改变和收费基金的清理,有助于减少煤炭开采类上市公司的成本负担,促使企业市值的上升并获得正的非正常收益。

In the context of supply side reform, traditional coal enterprises are faced with a severe test of reducing production capacity. At the same time there is also a ＂cost reduction＂oriented development opportunity provided by the reform of taxes and fees.Based on the release and implementation of the resource tax reform documents, we use event study method to evaluate the market effect of resource tax reform. The results show that during the period of coal price falling down, the market react negatively to the increase of coking coal tax, and the market value of coal mining listed companies declined. Levy method’s change from the amount of quota to the AD valorem rate, may reduce companies’ cost burden and increase enterprises market value. Market reacted more significantly on the date of documents implementation compared with the date of documents issue.