简单法则:复杂环境下区域金融风险的监测、防范与化解

Simple Rules: Monitoring, Prevention and Disposal of Regional Financial Risks under Complicated Circumstances

不确定复杂环境下如何有效监测、防范与处置区域金融风险?根据对山东G集团资金链危机等案例的归纳性研究,本文得到与传统观点不同的推断:信息不对称条件下,使用信息越多,区域金融风险监测难度越大;提取关键信息并予以加工利用,如构造使用区域重点企业"风险边界常数"、"贷款偏离度指标"等,有助于弥补多指标监测体系的滞后性和低敏感等缺陷。环境快速变化条件下,政银企风险处置模式易陷入"非合作博弈"困境,建立"政府强力核心"与择机终止协作是避免风险进一步扩大的最优选择。

In the complex environment of uncertainty, how can we effectively monitor, prevent and dispose of the regional financial risk？ According to some inductive research on the capital chain crisis case such as Shandong Guangda Riyue Group, we get some different inferences from the traditional view. Under the circumstance of the asym- metric information, the more information we use, the more difficulties we will encounter in the monitoring of the re- gional financial risk. Extracting the key information and using it such as the construction and use of ＂Risk border con- stant＂ of regional key enterprises, ＂Loan deviation indicator＂ may help us make up for the shortcomings such as hyster- esis and less sensitivity of multiple indicator monitoring system. Under the rapidly changing environment, the collabor- ative risk management mode in the government, banks and enterprises tend to fall into a ＂non-cooperative game＂ dilem- ma. It could be the best choice to avoid further risk by establishing the government as a strong core and choose to termi- nate the cooperation at the right time.