复杂系统脆弱性综合分析方法

Comprehensive analysis method for vulnerability of complex systems

为全面识别复杂系统中的脆弱点,科学评价其脆弱性,针对纯拓扑脆弱性分析方法的不足,在考虑非拓扑因素条件下,提出一种结合复杂网络技术和效能评估技术的复杂系统脆弱性综合分析方法,从拓扑结构和非拓扑因素两方面全面分析复杂系统的脆弱性。以复杂网络的中心性指标为基础,通过广义指标法进行拓扑脆弱性分析;借鉴概率风险评价理论,从易攻性和易坏性两个方面对非拓扑脆弱性进行评价;通过对两者结果的综合得到总的脆弱性分析结果。示例结果表明:拓扑和非拓扑分析的结果有交集但又有所区别,两者密切相关且互为补充,并能共同筛选出复杂系统中的关键环节。较之纯粹的拓扑结构分析,综合分析得到的结果更为全面。

In order to identify vulnerable points in complex system roundly and assess its vulnerability scientifically, to improve the insufficiency of the pure topological methods, an analysis method integrated complex network theories and effectiveness assessment technologies was proposed, which considers both the topological and non-topological factors of vulnerability. Based on centricity measurements of complex network, a generalized indicators method was used for topological vulnerability analysis. Referring to the probability risk assessment theory, non-topological vulnerability was analyzed from susceptibility and brittleness. Then the final vulnerability results were integrated from the former two results. The demonstration results show that there is an intersection set but also some differences between topological and non-topological analysis. These two aspects of vulnerability are correlative and complementary close, they both contribute to the screening of critical points and links in a complex system, and compared to purely topological study, conclusions from integrated analysis were more comprehensive.