以消费为主导的模式是环保的增长模式吗?

Is Consumption-driven Economic Growth Environmentally Friendly?

中国政府近期一直倡导经济再平衡战略,最重要的改革之一是由原有的以投资为主导的经济增长模式逐步转变为以消费为主导的经济增长模式。此项改革的目的之一是向更为绿色环保的增长模式转变。这一政策的基本假设是消费导致的污染小于生产带来的污染,但是相关的实证证据非常匮乏。在本文中,我们从实证上来研究经济再平衡的环境外部效应。我们使用1984—2006年中国空气能见度的数据来分析空气质量的变化趋势,结果表明从20世纪90年代中期开始,消费活动所造成的污染强度显著增加。因此,对中国而言,向以消费为主导的经济增长模式的转型并不一定是更加环保的举措。

Chinese government has adopted a rebalancing strategy in 2011,shifting from an investment- to consumption-oriented growth model. An aim of this reform is for a ＂greener＂ development mode,but relevant empirical evidence is slim. In this study,we propose an innovative methodology to shed light on the environmental externalities of rebalancing. First,we use air visibility across China to reflect air quality during 1984—2006. Second,with the daily visibility data,we propose a weekend-effect regression model to difference out city-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Third,we approximate local consumption intensity with the ratio of residential electricity usage over that of industries. To our surprise,the estimates suggest that the pollution intensity of consumption activities has increased significantly over time. As a result,rebalancing towards consumption is not necessarily more environment-friendly for China.