基于GIS的祁连山东端冰雹灾害风险评估与区划

Risk Assessment and Zonation of Hail Disaster in the East of Qilian Mountains Based on GIS

根据自然灾害系统理论和冰雹灾害风险评估的相关理论,选择冰雹多发地区的祁连山东端天祝藏族自治县为研究区,并基于天祝县和周边常规气象站观测资料、历史灾情资料和基础地理信息数据,探索和研究县级冰雹灾害风险区划的技术方法。通过分析致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体易损性以及防灾减灾能力4个指标,建立了冰雹灾害风险评估模型,并利用GIS(Geographic Information System)技术得到了天祝县冰雹灾害风险区划。结果显示:天祝藏族自治县冰雹灾害风险南高北低,其中华藏寺、东坪、石门、打柴沟大部及炭山岭和赛什斯的局部发生冰雹灾害的风险最高;哈溪、朵什、西大滩次之;松山的东部、旦马、祁连西南部为冰雹低风险区。

The zonation of hail risk is researched according to observed meteorological data, historical disaster data and fundamental geographic data in Tianzhu Tibetan autonomous county where hail disaster frequently happens. An evaluation model for hail risk is established consisting four indexes, namely hazard of disaster-inducing factor, sen- sitivity of environment to hail disaster, vulnerability of hazard-affected body to hail disaster, and capability of disas- ter reduction and relief. Furthermore, GIS technology is adopted to obtain the zoning of hail disaster risk. Results show that the hail risk rises from the north to the south in Tianzhu Tibetan autonomous county. Hail risks in Hua-zang temple, Dongping, Shimen and Dachaigou, and part of Tanshanling and Saishensi are the highest, followed by Haxi, Duoshen and Xidatan; the hail risks in east Songshan, southwest of Danma and Qilian are the lowest.