江苏碳排放的EKC检验及减排对策分析

EKC Test for Jiangsu Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Analysis of the Emission Reduction Policies

气候变暖是21世纪制约人类社会发展的主要因素,为应对气候变暖的挑战,世界各发达国家纷纷出台自己的减排政策,中国也已经作出到2020将单位GDP能耗降低40%~45%的承诺。实现这个目标必须在未来几十年里大幅提高能源利用效率,但是依靠企业自发行为很难达到减排目的,政府必须采取有力的措施,通过政策方面的调整来鼓励整个社会的二氧化碳的减排。通过对江苏碳排放的现状进行分析,基于EKC理论,根据碳排放量的基本等式,计算江苏1999—2012年间的碳排放量,结果表明江苏碳排放与经济发展规模并未表现为EKC的倒＂U＂型关系,而是＂N＂型。

Climate warming is the main constraints to the development of human society in the 21st century. In order to cope with the challenges of climate warming, all the developed countries have introduced their own emission reduction policies. China has also made the commitment to reduce the energy consumption per-unit by 40%-45% in 2020. To achieve this goal,in the next few decades we must improve energy efficiency substantially. However, it is difficult for the enterprise itself to achieve the emission reduction objective. Our government must take effective measures to encourage the whole society to reduce the emis- sion of carbon dioxide. Therefore,on the analysis of the status of Jiangsu＇s carbon emission, this paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of Jiangsu province from 1999 to 2012 with the basic equation of carbon emissions. The results show that the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions of Jiangsu and the economic development scale is exhibited in the EKC＇s ＂N＂ type instead of inverted ＂U＂ type.