美国产业结构变迁对高等教育结构的影响——基于预期收入的角度

Impact of Industrial Structure Change on US Higher Education Structure-Based on the Perspective of Expected Income

作为社会功能结构的组成部分,高等教育结构的变化必然受到产业结构变迁的影响。通过从预期收入的角度构建一阶自回归分布滞后模型,发现美国产业产值结构对高等教育结构的影响表现在:(1)从预期收入的角度可以解释各教育层次学科发展的分化,博士层次侧重发展技术类学科,硕士、学士层次侧重发展社会类学科;而硕士和学士层次人文学科变化却无法从预期收入角度进行解释;(2)博士、学士层次各学科的发展较大程度上受到预期收入的影响,而硕士层次各学科的发展受预期收入变化的影响较小;(3)服务业的发展促进了博士层次医疗和临床医学学科的快速发展。

As part of the social function structure, the structure of higher education will be inevitably affected by the changes of industrial structure. From the perspective of expected income, the study analyzes how the structure of American higher education adjusted to the industrial structure by constructing an autoregressive distributed lag model. The resuh shows that （1） From the perspective of expected income, we can explain the difference of most disciplinary educational levels.. Doctoral education focuses on the development of technical disciplines, and education at master-level and, bachelor level focuses on the development of social disciplines. However, arts and humanity education at master-level and bachelor level can＇ t get explained from the perspective of expected income; （2） the disciplinary development at doctoral and bachelor levels get largely influenced by the variance of expected income level compared with slight impact for the disciplinary development at master＇s level. （3） services sectors growth promoted the rapid development of medical and clinical disciplines at doctoral level.